Heads-up Holiday Shipping Cost

Heads‑up: shipping costs are climbing into holiday season — here’s a breakdown of what you should be planning for.

1. United States Postal Service (USPS) – Temporary holiday price changes

The USPS will implement temporary price increases on select package services — namely Priority Mail, Priority Mail Express, USPS Ground Advantage and Parcel Select (both retail & commercial) — effective midnight Central on October 5, 2025, and running through midnight Central on January 18, 2026.

The increases vary by service, weight, zone and whether the mailer is retail or commercial. For example, for retail Priority Mail zones 1‑4: +$0.40 for 0‑3 lbs, +$0.60 for 4‑10lbs, +$0.95 for 11‑25lbs, and +$3.00 for 26‑70lbs.

On average, according to industry analysis, the increases are about ~5.2 %‑5.8 % depending on service.

The stated reason: to cover extra handling costs during the holiday surge and align pricing more with competitive parcel carriers.

Implication: Shipments you plan during the Oct–Jan period will cost more than usual if sent via USPS competitive parcel services. That merits budgeting accordingly or shifting timing.

2. FedEx Corporation & United Parcel Service (UPS) – 2025 holiday “Demand/Peak” surcharges

FedEx published its “Demand Surcharges” page (U.S. package services) updated July 8, 2025.   Additional reporting shows the surcharge period runs roughly September 29, 2025 → January 18, 2026.

UPS’s August 28, 2025 PDF shows Demand Surcharge window for some large‑package/handling categories of Sept 28, 2025 → Jan 17, 2026.

The nature of surcharges:

Additional Handling / Large Package surcharges for oversized/heavy items. Example: UPS large package $90.50 → $107 depending peak window.

Demand surcharge for residential / ground / air packages: e.g., UPS Ground Residential $0.40 → $2.05 per package depending timeframe.

For FedEx: Additional handling $8.25 → $10.90; oversize charge ~$90 → ~$108.50.

Implication: If you’re shipping via FedEx or UPS during the holiday surge, expect these extra per‑package fees on top of base rates — especially for residential, oversized, or high‑volume shipments.

3. Pricing backdrop – U.S. ground parcel rates

According to the TD Cowen/AFS Logistics Freight Index (cited by Supply Chain Dive), U.S. per‑package ground delivery rates in Q3 2025 were ~31.2% above the January 2018 baseline, up from ~20.8% in Q3 2024.

The forecast: rates expected to climb further into Q4 (holiday season) as carriers layer surcharges and dimensional/volume pressures bite.

Implication: The temporary price/surcharge increases are layered on an already elevated rate environment — cost inflation in shipping is multi‑factor, not just holiday surcharge.

Why I’m sharing this

Because if you’re sending packages (especially if you ship products, fulfil goods, or handle e‑commerce) — these changes directly affect your cost base. Even if you’re a consumer or business sending fewer items, your shipping budget for the last part of the year will likely be higher than typical.

Key actions to consider

Review your shipping volume and mix: how many packages go ground vs premium, residential vs commercial.

Negotiate or lock in contracts early if you ship in volume with FedEx/UPS to mitigate surcharge impact.

Consider shifting shipment timing (pre‑peak) or bundling to reduce per‑package surcharge exposure.

Evaluate carrier options: USPS’s temporary increases are sm